Developed Countries
The US retail sales release delivered a positive signal about the US economy in December. The 0.6% m/m increase in overall retail sales beat expectations of a more muted acceleration from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m. Importantly, the improvement was broad-based with…
The British pound was the best performing G10 currency on Wednesday as UK gilts sold off meaningfully with the 10-year yield ending the day nearly 19 basis points higher. An unexpected acceleration in CPI inflation in December prompted the move. Notably,…
The performance of the Industrials sector tends to lag the business cycle, as companies invest in capex on the heels of economic expansion. But demand is not entirely cyclical, as the need to replace obsolete or aging equipment or machines is relatively…
The SEC has just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, but does bitcoin have any ‘intrinsic’ value? In this Special Report we explain why the answer is yes, how bitcoin compares with gold, and why the bitcoin price could ultimately head well north of $100,000.
The New York Fed’s Empire State Survey delivered a somber signal about US manufacturing conditions. The headline general business conditions index plunged from -14.5 to -43.7 in December, disappointing expectations of an improvement to -5.0. This move…
Canadian government bond yields jumped on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield rising by nearly 14 basis points. While most other major DM government bonds also sold off, the move in Canadian yields was relatively more pronounced. Both global and domestic forces…
Results of the ZEW survey sent a slightly positive signal on German investor sentiment. The economic expectations indicator rose to an 11-month high in January – beating consensus estimates of a decline. This increased optimism about the outlook reflects an…
The CHF/JPY has enjoyed a strong upward trend, appreciating by 52.6% since January 2019. Currently, it is 84.6% overvalued relative to PPP, which questions whether a turnaround is imminent. Japan faces more significant inflationary pressures than…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Republicans are favored in the Senate, so if they win the White House they will control all of Congress. This is the critical asymmetry of the election since a Democratic presidential victory will not…
The market will eventually be forced to react to rising odds of a sharp US national policy reversal. Investors should overweight government bonds and defensive equity sectors.