After rallying by 11.2% between October 5 and December 27, the price of copper has since been on a losing streak, falling in each of the subsequent six trading sessions. Notably, this decline has coincided with weakness among…
Friday’s Eurozone CPI inflation report was in line with consensus estimates. Headline inflation reaccelerated from 2.4%y/y to 2.9%y/y in December, in part reflecting the impact of the end of energy subsidies in Germany and…
At first blush, the US establishment survey delivered a positive surprise on Friday. The increase in US nonfarm payroll employment jumped from 173 thousand to 216 thousand in December – beating expectations of 175 thousand…
Following today’s US jobs data release, the Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator inched up to 0.18 and is now just a whisker from its recession event-horizon of 0.20.
The market is pricing in that the Fed will cut rates by around 175 BPs this year, with the first rate cut coming as early as March. We think it unlikely that the Fed will cut that quickly – unless a deterioration in the…
Equity markets are starting the year on a weak footing, with the S&P 500 falling by 1.4% in the first two trading days of the year. While it is still early days, the selloff has prompted much ink to be spilled about whether…
The attacks on Red Sea commercial tankers by Iran’s Yemeni proxies, the Houthi movement, are an inflation risk inasmuch as they lengthen voyage times for any shipping forced to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The risk of an expansion…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the euro has ample attractive features that justify a positive long-term outlook. However, its pro-cyclicality and the dollar’s negative…
Minutes from the Fed’s December 12-13 FOMC meeting suggest that policymakers are more confident that inflation is on track to return to target. While they continued to note that inflation remains elevated and that they are…
Results of the November JOLTS survey indicate that the US labor market is softening. The number of job openings slowed from 8.85 million to 8.79 million – the lowest since March 2021 and slightly below expectations of 8.…