Results of the New York Fed’s November Survey of Consumer Expectations corroborate the signal from the University of Michigan’s preliminary results that inflation expectations are receding. The 0.2 percentage point…
The recent decline in yields has powered European equities higher, however, this rally cannot last if earnings decline meaningfully. With this in mind, are our earnings models flagging risks for stocks next year?
The Santa Claus rally is a repricing of the "soft landing" scenario as a likely economic outcome. Yet, many investors remain cautious, and harbor significant cash balances. Next year, repricing of various scenarios will continue, and…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Fed will be surprisingly dovish in 2024 but it has a poor track record of avoiding recessions once monetary policy is restrictive. The independence of the…
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent an optimistic signal about the attitude of the US consumer on Friday, handily beating consensus estimates across the board. The preliminary headline index came in at 69.4,…
The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in…
The US employment report delivered a positive surprise on Friday. Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from 150 thousand to 199 thousand in November, beating expectations of 185 thousand. Importantly, the favorable result was…
Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.
The ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator signals the start of a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate of ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’ rises by 0.20 percent…