The Japanese yen strengthened considerably on Thursday after comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda caused investors to bring forward their expectation of the timing of the end of negative rates. In particular, Ueda…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, earnings growth estimates for 2024 appear overly optimistic. Just like economists and strategists, sell-side analysts are optimistic about the US economy. They have…
Retail sales volumes grew on a sequential basis for the first time in three months in October, rising by 0.1% m/m following an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline. On an annual basis, the pace of decline slowed from -2.9% y/y to -1…
The BoC kept its policy rate steady at 5% for the fourth consecutive meeting on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In its press release, the BoC maintained that it is ready to keep hiking if deemed necessary. That said, the…
German factory orders sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday. New orders at German factories unexpectedly declined by 3.7% m/m in October, disappointing expectations of a 0.2% m/m rise following two consecutive months of…
Illegal immigration into the US has skyrocketed to record levels. Correctly accounting for this, US real consumption growth on a per head basis is already fragile. Meanwhile, the real bond yield is only now approaching the pain point…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, US corporate bond spreads are far too tight. The soft landing narrative took hold of markets in November as the overnight index swap (OIS) curve moved to price in 159…
The number of US job openings fell sharply in October according to the JOLTS survey, from 9.4 million to 8.7 million. At 8.7 million, job openings are still above the 7.1 million average seen in the two years prior to the…
The November services PMIs sent a slightly positive signal on Tuesday. The global measure ticked up from 50.4 to 50.6, pointing to a marginal pickup in the pace of expansion. Importantly, this slight improvement was broad-based…