Our Global Asset Allocation strategists recommend staying defensively positioned. They remain underweight equities and the US specifically, while maintaining an overweight in fixed income yet downgrading duration to neutral.…
Negotiations on trade, Iran, and Ukraine will prove critical this month. Markets will remain volatile because positive data surprises enable the White House to press its hawkish tariff hikes, while negative surprises force the White…
The TWD’s surge reflects a regime shift in global capital flows that supports EM Asia government bonds. Alongside other Asian currencies, the TWD has rallied sharply against the USD since late last week. While the first wave of…
April’s ISM Services upside surprise does not shift our defensive stance, as its components show mixed momentum and rising price pressures. The headline index beat estimates, rising to 51.6 from 50.8. Business activity and new orders…
We apply our systematic approach to investing based on economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises to the major global bond markets. The economic regimes defined by the current macro-surprises setup confirm our existing fixed-…
April’s Eurozone inflation data supports BCA’s bullish Bund stance and cautious view on EUR/USD. Headline HICP inflation held steady at 2.2% y/y while core ticked up to 2.7% from 2.4%. Services inflation rebounded to 3.9%,…
This week, our three screeners cover: Favoring European equities over US equities, cybersecurity stocks, and large caps with large moves in their BCA Score.
The April ISM Manufacturing adds to recession risks: Collapsing export orders and weak domestic momentum reinforce our defensive positioning. The index slipped to 48.7 from 49.0, with new orders still contracting and new export…
The Bank of Japan’s dovish hold does not contradict BCA’s underweight JGBs and long JPY recommendations. The BoJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% for a second meeting, but slashed its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2025 and…
Our Counterpoint strategists overweigh Europe versus the US across both equities and bonds, and are structurally long bitcoin. Trump’s tariffs are deflationary for the world and inflationary for the US, prompting a sharp shift in…