As expected, the Fed stood pat at its Wednesday meeting, maintaining the target for the fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%. The minimal changes made to the Fed Statement were to emphasize the strong pace of economic activity in Q3, to…
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI delivered a disappointing update on factory activity in October. The headline index unexpectedly fell to 46.7, surprising consensus estimates it would remain unchanged at 49.0. In particular, a sharp…
Our reaction to today’s FOMC meeting and the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement.
The fundamental component of long-term inflation expectations has climbed to its highest level since 2008 in both the US and the euro area. This means that both the Fed and the ECB will need to engineer inflation to undershoot 2…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, 2012 provides a tentative roadmap of the next Eurozone manufacturing cycle. The resemblance between today and 2012 is uncanny. The overlap matches the…
The Eurozone's October inflation release confirmed the signal from the German and Spanish reports that price pressures are moderating. CPI inflation softened from 4.3% y/y to 2.9% y/y (below expectations of 3.1% y/y) while…
The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) unexpectedly accelerated in Q3, rising by 1.1% q/q versus anticipations the pace of increase would remain unchanged at 1.0% q/q. A pickup in wages and salaries drove the increase. On an annual…
The Bank of Japan adjusted the language of its Monetary Policy Statement on Tuesday to indicate that it will allow greater flexibility it its yield curve control policy (YCC). It indicated that although the target level of 10-…
The Fed’s latest triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), spanning the period from 2019 to 2022, was released on October 18th. It augments the Distributional Financial Accounts' (DFA) depiction of the distribution…
The European money market curve anticipates three rate cuts by October 2024. This pricing is appropriate considering the outlook for European growth next year. BCA’s Europe strategist expect a recession in the second half…