In a recent Insight we highlighted that the S&P 500's year-to-date rally is narrow in breadth and that the equal weighted index has erased all its year-to-date gains. This is also true in the case of the Euro Area where…
Eurozone economic data sent a positive signal on Monday. Preliminary CPI releases from Germany and Spain show price pressures continue to moderate. In Germany, the harmonized index declined by 0.2% m/m while the annual rate of…
What will the next manufacturing cycle look like in Europe and how will risk assets perform? Lessons from the recent past.
The US House of Representatives finally got a Speaker, but according to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, his voting record indicates that he will be a populist hardliner, which increases the chance that there…
Recent US data reveals that consumer spending has been extremely robust in the US (see The Numbers). Personal consumption expanded by 4.0% q/q annualized in Q3, helping lift aggregate economic growth. Nevertheless, Consumer…
Friday's Tokyo CPI release suggests that inflationary pressures are picking back up again in Japan. Headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% y/y – surprising expectations it would remain unchanged at 2.8% y/y. The ex-…
The US PCE report confirmed the signal from Thursday's preliminary GDP release that consumer spending was resilient in Q3. Although personal income growth unexpectedly slowed, both nominal and real spending growth…
Stronger US growth elicits a response from the House Republicans. But a government shutdown is not devastating to the economy. What is more devastating would be a crisis in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Stay long US defense,…
A look at recent data on economic growth, inflation and the labor market, and a discussion of the implications for Fed policy and bond strategy.
