Back in May, our foreign exchange team suggested the risk to sterling was to the downside. Indeed, GBP/USD is down 8% from its recent peak. While dollar strength largely explains this move in GBP/USD, there have been other…
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey delivered a negative surprise on Friday. A bigger-than-anticipated drop pushed the headline sentiment index down to a five-month low of 63.…
This week's Insight gauges the potential of a dollar breakout or breakdown and suggests a few trade ideas.
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that has preceded several turning-points in the last few years. This…
As expected, the UK economy bounced back in August with GDP expanding by 0.2% m/m following a 0.6% m/m decline in July. Yet to the extent that this improvement largely reflects a rebound after strikes weighed down on activity in…
The US CPI report shows inflation was higher than anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m, it is above expectations of 0.3% m/m. The annual rate of change remains at 3.7% y/y…
Comments on recent Fedspeak, bond market moves and this morning’s CPI report.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European automobile and components stocks will suffer over the coming years. The European automobile and components equity sector is cheap, trading at a…
The Q3 earnings season will shift into high gear this Friday as banks report their financial results for the quarter. Among the trends that we’ll be watching for is insight on the outlook for profit margins. As our US…
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting confirmed that the Fed intends to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Although inflation has been moderating, participants continue to view it as unacceptably high and…