August brought some respite for German factories struggling with poor demand this year. After falling by 11.3% m/m in the prior month, German factory orders rebounded by 3.9% m/m in August – beating expectations of a 1.5% m…
The US Nonfarm Payroll report delivered a strong positive surprise about employment growth in September. Job gains accelerated from 187 thousand to 336 thousand – significantly above expectations of a slight decline to 170…
An update to our US bond strategy following this morning’s employment report.
In this report, we explore some trading opportunities after a volatile few weeks for FX markets.
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the EU carbon tax – aka Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – launched Sunday will lead to higher inflation in the medium term (3-5…
The Fed’s ‘Sahm rule’ real-time recession indicator signals a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. But…
Oil prices are having a tough start to Q4. The price of brent has collapsed by 13% over the past week, with the bulk of the selloff occurring on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Brent now stands below $85/bbl. There are…
The results of the Bank of England’s latest monthly Decision Maker Panel survey reduces pressure on policymakers to tighten further. Business expectations regarding output price inflation over the coming year fell from 5…
The EU’s transition to a carbon tax launched this week via its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanics (CBAM) will lead to higher inflation in the medium term (3 – 5 years out), and will stoke consumer (i.e., voter) antipathy if it…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends a barbelled allocation across the Treasury curve. The Treasury curve bear-steepened in September. The 2-year/10-year Treasury slope steepened 32 bps on the month and…