As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate at 5.5% on Wednesday, keeping policy unchanged for the third consecutive meeting. The press release underscored that while monetary policy is weighing on…
As expected, the US ISM PMI showed service sector activity slowing in September. The Services ISM declined from 54.5 to 53.6, broadly in line with expectations of 53.5. Although the level of the headline index indicates that…
There is a connection between the bond market meltdown and Republican Party’s meltdown. Investors should expect more short-term financial market volatility as a result of the triple whammy of high bond yields, high oil prices, and a…
We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Mediterranean bloc’s move from current account deficit to current account surplus nations greatly limits the risk of a new sovereign debt crisis…
The S&P 500’s performance deteriorated significantly in Q3. After having soared by nearly 16% in the first half of the year, the index ended the third quarter with a 3.7% loss. True, a surge in AI winners drove the H1…
The Citi US Inflation Surprise Index has risen over the past two months after having bottomed at a three-year low in July. The good news is that the level of the index remains negative after having first fallen below zero in…
The Australian dollar was among the worst performing major currencies on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month. In her post meeting statement, newly appointed…
The US JOLTS report sent a chill through financial markets on Tuesday. The bigger-than-expected number of job openings in August fueled investors’ concern that the Fed will be forced to maintain a hawkish stance for longer…
We present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2023.