The Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up by a marginal 0.1 point to 49.1 in September, indicating that manufacturing activity deteriorated at a slightly slower pace than in August. However, several of the details of the report were…
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for oil prices, Fed policy, and the global economy. On the outlook for crude oil, a larger share of respondents…
Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven…
Downside risks to equities are building. Rates, the dollar, and energy prices will remain elevated into yearend. This trifecta makes a soft landing less likely than before and hurts corporate profits and multiples. However, high cash…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, US Treasury yields are set to overshoot before topping out. The selloff in global bonds is becoming advanced, but there will be more damage to bond…
The consumption rotation from goods to services has been one of the drivers of the global manufacturing downturn. Demand for durable goods normalized after the pandemic binge. Meanwhile, consumption of services benefitted from…
The BoJ remains an outlier among global DM central banks. While many of its peers are now debating whether to end their rate tightening cycles, the Japanese central bank has not even started raising interest rates yet.…
The US Personal Income and Outlays report for August sent a positive signal about the disinflationary trend. The core PCE deflator – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – slowed to a 33-month low of 0.1% m/m…
