Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Developed Countries

Rebounding German Factory Orders: False Signal?
August brought some respite for German factories struggling with poor demand this year. After falling by 11.3% m/m in the prior month, German factory orders rebounded by 3.9% m/m in August – beating expectations of a 1.5% m/m increase. In particular, a…
Daily Insights
Will The US Government Shut Down?
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the odds of a US government shutdown are 50/50 and will go higher if Democrats harden their demands or if Republicans pick a populist speaker. The next deadline to fund the government is November…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231006_120015.JPG
Some Ammo For The Hawks

An update to our US bond strategy following this morning’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
f_image_20231005_220707.JPG
Thoughts On Recent FX Moves

In this report, we explore some trading opportunities after a volatile few weeks for FX markets.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Easing UK Labor Market Will Alleviate Wage Pressures
The results of the Bank of England’s latest monthly Decision Maker Panel survey reduces pressure on policymakers to tighten further. Business expectations regarding output price inflation over the coming year fell from 5.0% y/y to 4.8% y/y. Similarly, the…
Daily Insights
Are Oil Prices On A Slippery Slope?
Oil prices are having a tough start to Q4. The price of brent has collapsed by 13% over the past week, with the bulk of the selloff occurring on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Brent now stands below $85/bbl. There are multiple suspects behind the…
Daily Insights
Introducing A New Real-Time US Recession Indicator
The Fed’s ‘Sahm rule’ real-time recession indicator signals a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. But one shortfall of using the headline unemployment…
Daily Insights
EU CBAM’s Inflationary Impacts
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the EU carbon tax – aka Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – launched Sunday will lead to higher inflation in the medium term (3-5 years out). If enacted, the CBAM will collect…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231004_152648.JPG
The EU’s CBAM: The Road to Hell Is Paved With Green Intentions

The EU’s transition to a carbon tax launched this week via its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanics (CBAM) will lead to higher inflation in the medium term (3 – 5 years out), and will stoke consumer (i.e., voter) antipathy if it becomes effective in 2026. As a result, the tax will be watered down. Food and energy prices are particularly at risk, as imported fertilizers, and electricity-generation and -transmission components made from steel and aluminum are affected by the CBAM. We remain long oil, gas and metals equity exposure via the XOP, XME and COMT ETFs. We also remain long gold to hedge inflation.

Commodity & Energy Strategy
US Service Sector Activity Decelerates In September
As expected, the US ISM PMI showed service sector activity slowing in September. The Services ISM declined from 54.5 to 53.6, broadly in line with expectations of 53.5. Although the level of the headline index indicates that service sector growth remains…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics