In Section I, we note that the recent surge in long-maturity government bond yields is symptomatic of a sharp reduction in market expectations for a soft-landing economic outcome. This underscores that the US and other developed…
Financial conditions tightened meaningfully in the first three quarters of 2022 as market participants anticipated an aggressive monetary tightening cycle. However, this tightening phase ended in late-2022. Indeed, economic…
German inflation delivered an optimistic signal about the disinflation trend on Thursday. The headline CPI EU harmonized index collapsed from 6.4% y/y to 4.3% y/y in September– its lowest level since September 2021 and…
Although BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service regards fears of dedollarization as overblown, the team is bearish on the longer-term outlook for the greenback due to two key concerns. First, the dollar…
Brent crude oil price surged by 2.96% to an 11-month high of 96.75 on Wednesday on the back of ongoing supply concerns and data from the US EIA showing an ongoing decline in domestic inventories. The weekly inventory draw…
US dollar strength and rising real rates have created a toxic mix for the yellow metal over the past few months. Gold prices have fallen by 7.3% from the May peak and are on track to erase the year-to-date gains. Conditions…
US durable goods order delivered a positive surprise on Wednesday. New orders unexpectedly expanded by 0.2% m/m in August, beating expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline. Similarly, core capital goods orders (a proxy for business…
One of the few things US equity investors agree upon these days is that the S&P 500 is expensive whether it is relative to history, other asset classes, or the level of interest rates. But how overvalued is the market? To…
The year-to-date rally in US cyclical stocks has fizzled. After climbing 29% in the first seven months of the year, cyclical equities are down 6.0% since the beginning of August. This drop is happening in the context of a general…
On the surface, US housing market data is sending conflicting signals. On the one hand, both the FHFA as well as the S&P CoreLogic gauges of US house prices surprised to the upside in July and are now expanding on both a…