The collapse in soft data points to rising recession risks, but markets are still only priced for a mild slowdown, reinforcing our defensive positioning. As policy uncertainty and market volatility surged, consumers and businesses…
The April Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey adds to recent stagflationary signals, reinforcing our preference for gold over industrial commodities. The index plunged to -35.8 from -16.3 in March, with activity measures deteriorating…
Our European Investment strategists maintain a defensive stance. Favor bunds as an emerging safe-haven complement to US Treasurys and a value tilt in equities. While the dollar and US fixed income remain the global anchor, EUR/USD…
Are bunds the new Treasurys? The euro and German debt are gaining favor as safe havens, but markets may be overplaying the shift. Our latest report dissects what's durable, what's not, and how to trade the dislocation.
BCA’s House View recommends staying underweight stocks versus bonds, even in a stagflationary scenario. The US and global economies are likely to enter a recession this year unless tariffs are swiftly reversed or meaningful fiscal…
US Treasuries typically outperform both equities and global government bonds during downturns. Recent political shifts could lessen that outperformance this cycle, but we doubt it will disappear completely.
This week, our three screeners all cover equity plays centered around safe stock selection within Equity Analyzer.
Although the sell-off in the US dollar and relative outperformance of non-US stocks will pause over the coming months as a global recession begins, the fading of US exceptionalism will still cause the dollar to weaken and US stocks…
The US dollar’s underperformance since Liberation Day highlights shifting dynamics in global markets, but the recent “Sell America” move is overdone. During April’s market turmoil, the dollar failed to act as a safe haven, with US…