As expected, the Bank of Japan voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged on Friday. The policy rate remains at -0.1% and the central bank maintains Yield Curve Control (YCC) on 10-year JGB yields. To the extent that the BoJ…
Flash PMIs suggests that the tailwind to services from pent-up demand during the pandemic is easing and that although the global manufacturing downturn is bottoming, it is not meaningfully reaccelerating. In the case of the US…
US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China.
Emergency pandemic fiscal and monetary policy measures buffered households and nonfinancial corporate businesses in ways that have acted to lengthen the lags between monetary policy changes and their effect on the economy. We believe…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the combination of rising oil prices, an appreciating US dollar, and mounting US bond yields constitutes a triple whammy for US share prices. One risk that…
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favor of maintaining its bank rate at 5.25% on Thursday. The four members that voted against the pause all preferred a 25-basis point rate increase. The tight…
Thursday’s release of US weekly jobless claims and continuing claims delivered a positive surprise about labor market conditions. The decline in initial jobless claims to an eight-month low of 201 thousand came in below…
The global downturn will be shallower than it was in 2008 and in 2020 but will last for longer. The primary reason for a more prolonged downturn is that policymakers in the US, Europe, and China will be reluctant to proactively and…
We continue to expect Brent crude to trade just above $101/bbl in 4Q23, and to average $118/bbl in 2024. Higher volatility looms. We expect Russia will cut oil production next year as part of a concerted effort to undermine Biden’s…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the 2006/07 roadmap remains a good one for bond investors. The Fed held the funds rate steady this afternoon and made no material changes to its policy statement.…