Top-down measures of nonfinancial corporate sector balance sheet health have been flattered in recent quarters by inaccurate data on interest expense. After correcting for the inaccurate data, we see that our best measures of…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service European inflation is likely to remain stubborn through the remainder of the decade, since the working-age population’s decline will keep the labor…
Monetary policy is difficult to calibrate: it is hard to get it just right. The Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service has been iterating that while the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, there is much uncertainty…
Google searches for “inflation” by US users have been on a general downward trend over the past year. This is in line with developments in realized inflation as annual core CPI inflation peaked last September.…
After a steady rebound in the first half of the year, the US NAHB Housing Market Index’s 5-point decline to 45 in September was a disappointment to consensus estimates of a 1-point decrease. It marks the second consecutive…
The ECB is done lifting interest rate for the cycle and its next move will be a cut next year. Yet, European rates will climb even higher in the second half of the decade.
The Euro Area’s industrial production figures for July sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday. The 1.1% m/m decline in output fell below expectations of a smaller 0.9% m/m decrease. On a year-over-year basis, IP…
A sharp drop in the US labor force participation rate was among the pandemic disruptions that contributed to tight labor market conditions. The total participation rate collapsed from 63.3% in February 2020 to 60.1% in April 2020…