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Developed Countries

US Prime Age Workers Have Returned To Work
A sharp drop in the US labor force participation rate was among the pandemic disruptions that contributed to tight labor market conditions. The total participation rate collapsed from 63.3% in February 2020 to 60.1% in April 2020. The decline over those two…
Daily Insights
China Matters For The Eurozone Industrial Sector
The Euro Area’s industrial production figures for July sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday. The 1.1% m/m decline in output fell below expectations of a smaller 0.9% m/m decrease. On a year-over-year basis, IP contracted for the third consecutive month,…
Daily Insights
Nothing In CPI To Prevent A Fed Pause

The implications of this morning’s CPI report for Fed policy, Treasuries and TIPS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Will I Work For AI, Or Will AI Work For Me?

This Special Report is a timely reprise of a speech that I gave at the London School of Economics on our understanding and misunderstanding of generative AI. In neurological terms, generative AI has a ‘super-neocortex’ which means that it can thrash humans in abstract thinking, or IQ. But crucially, generative AI does not have a ‘limbic system’ which means that it will lag well behind humans in emotional intelligence, or EQ. I hope you find the speech insightful and provocative, especially on how we might have completely misunderstood human intelligence and super-intelligence, and the economic and societal implications for the coming decade.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
European Bond Strategy Ahead Of A Critical ECB Meeting

In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting

Global Fixed Income Strategy
US Small Business Sentiment Deteriorates
US small business optimism deteriorated for the first time in four months in August. The NFIB index declined by 0.6 point to 91.3, falling slightly below expectations of 91.5. In particular, current conditions deteriorated slightly: the share of owners…
Daily Insights
UK: Sticky Wage Pressures Despite Rising Unemployment Rate
The latest UK labor market developments complicate the Bank of England’s task when it meets next week. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.2% to 4.3% in the three months to July as employment fell by 207 thousand. Similarly, payrolled employees…
Daily Insights
Mixed Signals From The ZEW
Results of the ZEW survey of investor sentiment delivered a mixed signal on Tuesday. On the positive side, the indicator of economic sentiment for Germany unexpectedly ticked up from -12.3 to -11.4, surprising expectation of a further deterioration to…
Daily Insights
US Consumer: "Richcession" Will Be A Drag On Spending
Strong consumer spending so far this year has been powered by robust employment gains coupled with real wage growth turning positive on the back of receding inflationary pressures. However, our US equity strategists recently highlighted that these…
Daily Insights
Why Democrats Will Stick With Biden, Then Harris
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Democratic Party will stick with the Biden-Harris ticket for longer than anyone expects. Changes to the ticket should be seen as negative for risk assets because they increase the odds of…
Daily Insights

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