Eurozone headline inflation surprised to the upside in August, confirming the signal from the preliminary German and Spanish releases. The year-on-year gauge was unchanged at 5.3% – surprising expectations of a deceleration…
The US Personal Income and Outlays report shows consumption remained resilient in July. Although personal income growth decelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.2% m/m, spending accelerated from an upwardly revised 0.6% m/m to 0.8% m/m…
In Section I, we respond to the ongoing challenge to our view that the US economy is on a recessionary path. The available evidence overwhelmingly supports the notion that US monetary policy is tight, which argues against the “no…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook calls for a modest curve steepening as wage growth and inflation fall. Odds are that the next big yield curve move will be a bull-steepening that…
After having sold off in the first five months of the year, the performance of small-cap stocks improved in June and July with the S&P 600 index gaining 13.9% in those two months. A broadening of the US equity rally –…
Consensus expectations for the US economy were bleak at the start of the year. In hindsight, this pessimism was excessive: real GDP expanded in the first two quarters of the year (see Country Focus). Similarly, the US Conference…
US Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 2.1% on a quarterly annualized basis, only slightly above Q1 growth of 2.0%. Although consumption was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, business spending grew at a slower…
Euro Area inflation data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. According to preliminary data, although Germany’s harmonized headline CPI inflation rate fell from 6.5% y/y to 6.4% y/y in August, it nevertheless came in…
We comment on Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and recommend shifting to a barbelled allocation along the Treasury curve.