Treasury yields are generally following the pattern of past interest rate cycles, but with a larger term premium keeping the curve steeper than usual.
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the policy rate by 50 basis points to 2.5% and signaled further easing ahead, supporting an overweight stance in New Zealand government bonds and underweight in the NZD.The larger-than-…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2025.
September flash PMIs show slowing global momentum, reinforcing US equity outperformance and underweights in industrial metals. The US composite slipped to 53.6 from 54.6, led by weaker manufacturing. Europe was mixed: Services…
Median Fed unemployment rate projections are overly optimistic. The Fed will end up cutting more in 2026 than it currently anticipates.
High US inflation is being driven by tariffs, not domestic inflationary pressure. This argues for Fed easing and a bull-steepening of the Treasury curve.
USD-denominated Emerging Market bonds have been outperforming US corporates for the past year. We don’t think the rally is exhausted yet.