Developed Countries
The Fed will keep rates on hold in H1 2026, but dovish policy surprises are likely in the second half of the year.
The 10-year Treasury term premium is now competitive with Baa- and Ba-rated credit spreads. Even without term premium compression, duration carry trades could outperform credit carry trades in a low rate vol environment.
In our 2026 inflation outlook, we explain why 2026 will bring more disinflation, upside risks remain contained, and how to position in ILBs across major markets.
Mortgage spread tightening has run its course. Any further drop in mortgage rates will necessitate lower Treasury yields.
This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror.
Measures of labor market utilization improved in December, ruling out a January cut and significantly reducing the odds of a March cut.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2026.
MacroQuant has downgraded equities to underweight, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is still bullish on gold.