US stagflation is the main message from the April Fed Beige Book, reinforcing our underweight in risk assets and preference for gold. The report showed slowing growth, a softening labor market, and rising input costs. Our Beige Book…
April PMIs confirm global growth is stalling, reinforcing our overweight in government bonds and underweight in risk assets. Services witnessed the worst deterioration, but manufacturing is still contracting even if broadly stable.…
Advanced US indicators for April continue to deteriorate, reinforcing our defensive positioning as recession risks remain underpriced. After weak Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing prints, the Philly Fed services survey shows the…
Weak European consumer confidence adds to recent sentiment misses and reinforces our tactical long December 2025 ESTR futures versus SOFR position. April flash Consumer Confidence fell to -16.7 from -14.5 in March, missing…
Our EM strategists recommend upgrading CE3 assets within EM portfolios, as a structural shift in the global currency regime is underway. They expect the greenback to depreciate against the euro amid a global downturn, supporting…
President Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell is intensifying, but keeping Powell in place offers the administration political cover while keeping bond yields contained. Removing Powell would be legally difficult and risk…
The latest UK data supports a May BoE cut, reinforcing our overweight in Gilts as growth headwinds build and inflation cools. Employment declined by 78k in March, accelerating from February’s downwardly revised 8k drop, while…
Our China strategists remain defensive and tactically downgrade MSCI China to underweight, citing escalating US China tariff tensions and subdued domestic demand. Favor government bonds over equities, defensive sectors, and A-Shares…
Soft data for the US labor market has turned sharply lower, reinforcing the case for a defensive asset allocation. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Miroslav Aradski from our Global Investment Strategy team. While it may take months…