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Developed Countries

Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Index Relapses
Results of the Philadelphia Fed’s August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey sent a negative signal on Tuesday. The diffusion index for firms’ assessment of general business activity across the region relapsed and fell by 14.5 points to -13.1, indicating…
Daily Insights
Deteriorating US Housing Affordability
The latest update of the Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) – which gauges a median-income households’ ability to absorb annual costs related to owning a median-priced home – is now at its lowest level since last October. At 69.5 in…
Daily Insights
US Equities: Has The Correction Run Its Course?
The jubilant summer rally came to a halt in August, with the S&P 500 down 4.4% MTD.  A confluence of factors has weighed on the performance of US equities ranging from economic malaise in China to too-hot economic data and surging long Treasury…
Daily Insights
Rising Economy, Falling Approval
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Democratic Party is favored to win the 2024 election as long as it is not discredited by a major shock. But recession odds are not low. The US economy has enjoyed a lot of positive surprises…
Daily Insights
Biden's Moment Of Truth

Investors should prepare for an equity market pullback this fall, prefer Treasuries over stocks, and US defensives over cyclicals. A pullback could also morph into another bear market given that monetary policy is tight, policy uncertainty will spike, global growth is slowing, and geopolitical risks are still high.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
Dissipating Pipeline Pressures In Germany
German producer prices indicate that inflationary pressures continue to moderate. The producer price index’s 6.0% y/y drop in July is more pronounced than the anticipated 5.1% y/y decline and marks the first annual decrease since November 2020 and the…
Daily Insights
Monitoring The Risk Of A Second Inflation Wave In The US
In an Insight last month, we noted that the Global Investment Strategy service increased its subjective odds for the resurgence of US inflation later this year or early next year from 20% to 30%. Here are some of the data points that they track and that point…
Daily Insights
How Much Higher For German Yields?
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields are unlikely to experience a decisive break out that would carry them to 3%. Five economic forces suggest that German yields are unlikely to move meaningfully higher in the…
Daily Insights
How Much Higher For European Yields?

European yields are testing the upper end of their recent trading range. Is the European economic outlook consistent with an imminent breakout?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Is The 2024 Election Relevant To Investors?

The next six-to-nine months hold a crucial test of whether the equity market will ratify the soft landing and the Biden administration or not. If so, then markets will rally on policy continuity and likely gridlock. If not, then markets will struggle until the election is over and again in 2025-26.

Geopolitical Strategy, US Equity Strategy by Matt Gertken

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