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Developed Countries

Real Earnings Growth Across Various Inflation Regimes
High levels of inflation distort cross-period comparisons of both earnings and sales and mask real earnings growth rates. Last year is a case in point: While in nominal terms, earnings (including Energy) have been contracting for only two quarters, in real…
Daily Insights
What Could Push Bond Yields Higher From Here?

This week’s report examines three potential catalysts that could push Treasury yields meaningfully higher within the next few months. We also consider the rebuild of the Treasury’s cash holdings and its implications for the Fed’s balance sheet policy and financial markets.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
The ECB And BoJ Diverge: Implications For Markets

In this Insight, we discuss the currency and bond market implications of last week’s ECB and Bank of Japan policy meetings. The conclusion: the ECB is on a path to an overly hawkish policy mistake, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance is growing more unsustainable.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
US Homebuilder Sentiment Turns Positive
US Homebuilder confidence surprised to the upside on Monday, with the NAHB’s Housing Market Index jumping from 50 to 55 in June – beating expectations of 51. This marks the first time in 11 months that the index rises above the 50 level, signaling favorable…
Daily Insights
A Looming Sugar Crash?
After a brief decline, sugar prices have once again been climbing higher over the past two weeks. The price of the commodity is nearly back to its late-April high, bringing its year-to-date gain back up to 32%. While overbought conditions and stretched…
Daily Insights
Have Growth Stocks Overshot?
The 231bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield last year weighed heavily on the relative performance of Growth stocks which lost 22.7% vis-à-vis the Value index in 2022. However, these dynamics have reversed this year with the rally in Growth stocks outpacing…
Daily Insights
Is The S&P 500 Expensive, Enough?
Is The S&P 500 Expensive, Enough? …
Daily Insights
Eurozone Inflation: The Worst Is Over
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service Eurozone inflation likely to diminish further. First, policy is tight. The impact on leading economic variables is already visible, with M1 collapsing, credit demand plunging, credit…
Daily Insights
The ECB And BoJ Diverge: Implications For Markets

In this Insight, we discuss the currency and bond market implications of last week’s ECB and Bank of Japan policy meetings. The conclusion: the ECB is on a path to an overly hawkish policy mistake, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance is growing more unsustainable.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
So Far, So Good On The Road To 4,500

As the S&P 500 nears our 4,500 target, we review the rationale behind the call to assess its merit.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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