Developed Countries
As the S&P 500 nears our 4,500 target, we review the rationale behind the call to assess its merit.
The Japanese yen was the worst performing major currency on Friday. The weakness followed news that the BoJ kept its policy rate untouched at -0.1% – as widely expected – and did not make any changes to its yield curve control program. While the BoJ statement…
Preliminary results of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey sent a positive signal about household morale in June. The Sentiment index rose by a greater-than-anticipated 4.7 points to 63.9 on the back of improvements in both the Current…
The Eurozone just experienced two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. For the remainder of the year, can growth pick up or will the ECB decimate activity?
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25bps rate hike on Thursday, raising the policy rate to 3.5% — the highest since August 2001. Moreover, the central bank maintained a hawkish bias, signaling that further rate hikes are likely in…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, making inflation imperceptible will require making unemployment perceptible, meaning a recession. Our non-linear world often surprises our linear-thinking minds. For linear thinkers, inflation falling from…
This Strategy Insight discusses the bond market and currency implications of the Fed’s “hawkish pause”.
The US May PPI report indicates that pipeline inflationary pressures are cooling. Headline PPI inflation fell from 2.3% y/y to 1.1% y/y – below expectations of 1.5% y/y and the lowest since December 2020. PPI for final demand was also lower than anticipated…
UK gilts have sold off sharply over the past month, particularly at the short end of the yield curve. The two-year yield has risen by over 100bps since mid-May, while 10-year yields have increased by just over 70bps – causing the 2-year/10-year yield curve to…
As expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in order to give policymakers time to assess the impact of the aggressive tightening cycle. Chair Powell indicated that the decision to pause is consistent with policy getting closer to its…