Developed Countries
请于2025年4月24日星期四上午9:00 (北京/香港 时间) 加入BCA美国政治与地缘政治策略首席分析师Matt Gertken和美国政治与地缘政治副主编马语书的中文网络直播:《特朗普的百日新政：概览与展望》。
US stagflation is the main message from the April Fed Beige Book, reinforcing our underweight in risk assets and preference for gold. The report showed slowing growth, a softening labor market, and rising input costs. Our Beige Book Monitor mirrors this…
Weak European consumer confidence adds to recent sentiment misses and reinforces our tactical long December 2025 ESTR futures versus SOFR position. April flash Consumer Confidence fell to -16.7 from -14.5 in March, missing expectations and aligning with…
Advanced US indicators for April continue to deteriorate, reinforcing our defensive positioning as recession risks remain underpriced. After weak Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing prints, the Philly Fed services survey shows the slowdown is spreading beyond…
Our EM strategists recommend upgrading CE3 assets within EM portfolios, as a structural shift in the global currency regime is underway. They expect the greenback to depreciate against the euro amid a global downturn, supporting Central European currencies,…
President Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell is intensifying, but keeping Powell in place offers the administration political cover while keeping bond yields contained. Removing Powell would be legally difficult and risk unsettling markets, while his…
Q1 Export Spike Masks Eurozone Slowdown Ahead
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Upgrade the odds of a full-scale war in the Taiwan Strait from 5% to 10%. Rapid escalation of US-China economic war raises the probability of tensions spilling into the military-strategic domain. Investors should buy insurance against this tail risk while it is cheap. Meanwhile, use this year’s trade shock and equity volatility to increase allocation to EM manufacturing states.
