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Developed Countries

The latest increase in US weekly jobless claims came in above consensus estimates. Initial jobless claims jumped to 261 thousand in the week ended June 3 – above expectations of a 235 thousand increase. This marks the highest level since October 2021. Rising…
The final Q1 GDP release shows the Euro Area economy contracted by 0.1% q/q last quarter, a downwards revision from estimates of a 0.1% expansion. To the extent that this follows a 0.1% q/q decline in Q4 2022, the revised numbers indicate that the Euro Area…
Near the half-year mark, it is safe to say 2023 has been different than 2022 for equity investors. After being brought down in bear market territory by Europe’s energy crisis and sudden global shift to hawkish monetary policy in 2022, the S&P 500 was…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, an analysis of the AI rally’s complexity suggests that the rally is nearing a potential reversal point. Can the AI euphoria continue to drive the S&P 500 higher? It’s possible, but there are two…

In this <i>Insight</i>, we answer a few crucial questions: Do the BoC and RBA decisions have any impact on what we can expect from other major central banks next week? Are there any profitable trades that can be put on, given the recent hawkish shift by these two central banks? How should global bond investors be positioned in a fixed income portfolio?

Slowing manufacturing PMI indices globally indicate the slowdown in economic activity will persist. Manufacturing demand for commodities will also soften, weighing on industrial commodity prices. Geopolitical tensions and the race to the green energy transition will upend enmeshed global supply chains, which will also impact manufacturing activity. It is possible that stimulus in China will arrest the decline in the state’s manufacturing activity, which will have positive spillover effects to its key trading partners.   

The Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets with a 25bp hike yesterday, bringing the policy rate up to a 22-year high of 4.75%. This ended the pause on rate hikes announced back in March, which only ended up lasting two meetings. The Canadian bond market…
Eurozone households are becoming less concerned about the near-term outlook for inflation. The results of the latest ECB Consumer Expectations survey show a significant drop in median 12-month inflation expectations from 5.0% in March to 4.1% in April – the…
US high-yield corporate bonds have been rallying of late. The average index option-adjusted spread narrowed by 58 bps over the past three weeks. This improvement is consistent with the recent performance of other risky assets: the S&amp;P 500 is up 4.2% since…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst expectations in Q1-23, yet in real…