Developed Countries
Our China strategists remain defensive and tactically downgrade MSCI China to underweight, citing escalating US China tariff tensions and subdued domestic demand. Favor government bonds over equities, defensive sectors, and A-Shares over offshore Chinese…
The ECB’s latest 25 bps cut and President Lagarde's notably dovish tone amid rising trade uncertainty reinforce our long December 2025 ESTR futures versus SOFR position. The deposit facility rate now stands at 2.25%, and Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary…
April’s Philadelphia Fed survey adds to recent stagflationary signals, reinforcing our defensive commodities positioning. The headline index collapsed to -26.4 from 12.5 in March, missing expectations and confirming the April deterioration seen in the Empire…
Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raise policy uncertainty but are unlikely to lead to Powell’s removal, reinforcing our expectation for continued restrictive policy and supporting our long duration stance. Trump's intensified criticism…
Europe’s deflation problem is getting harder to ignore. This week’s ECB cut is just the beginning — tariffs, the euro’s rally, and softening demand all point to more easing ahead. We explain what it means for yields, equities, and EUR/USD.
This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in: Canadian Consumer Staples, high-beta Swedish equities, and factor plays across global equities.
After seven consecutive cuts brought policy into neutral territory, the BoC held its deposit rate at 2.75% reinforcing our neutral-to-negative stance on Canadian government bonds. With policy now within the 2.25%-3.25% neutral range, the Bank comfortably…
Soft data continues to deteriorate and hard data will soon follow, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. Consumer and business confidence have plunged as policy uncertainty and inflation expectations rise, with spending, hiring and capex plans…
Eurozone sentiment has sharply deteriorated, reinforcing a cautious stance on European assets over the next 6 to 12 months. The April ZEW expectations index for the eurozone collapsed to -18.5 from 39.8, while Germany’s gauge also plunged and missed…