Developed Countries
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) shows that US commercial banks continue to tighten lending standards across nearly all business and household loan categories. Moreover, demand is weakening for commercial & industrial…
At 3.8%, the yield on 10-year UK Gilts is now back near where it was in early March. This marks a round-trip after the yield fell to as low as 3.3% in the weeks following the emergence of bank stress in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, both US and German 10-year…
The rebound in European economic conditions that began at the end of 2022 has ended. On Monday, the Eurozone Sentix sent a pessimistic signal about investor confidence. The headline index fell from -8.7 to -13.7 in May – disappointing expectations of a…
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of a “constitutional crisis” if Congress failed to raise the national debt limit and the United States defaulted on bond payments. Yellen spoke out to urge Congress to come to an agreement just ahead of May 9 meetings…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the ECB is wading into policy-mistake territory because it is overemphasizing lagging indicators such as wages at the expense of leading indicators such as credit and money flows. European…
The ECB continues to focus on lagging indicators and risks once again to cause a policy error that unduly hurts European growth. What does it mean for investors?
Friday’s US jobs report came in stronger than anticipated. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253 thousand in April, meaningfully above expectations of a 185 thousand increase. Admittedly, the March figure was revised down significantly from 236 thousand to…
Investors are betting that the Fed has delivered its last rate hike of the cycle and will swiftly pivot to easing policy. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 38% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the July meeting. By…
The Fed’s Index of Common Inflation Expectations confirms that there is reduced pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy further. The quarterly release shows the index declined for the third consecutive time in Q1. The index is a…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s base case remains a 2024 recession but the risks around that view have increased in light of recent banking stresses. A recession that begins abruptly this year could end up being deeper than one that…