Developed Countries
As the Fed meets today, we explain what it did wrong in 1970, 1974, and 1980 that prevented inflation from being exorcised, and the lessons for 2023-24. Plus, we identify a currency cross that could rebound in the next year.
The JOLTS survey for March showed a continued softening of the US labor market. Job openings fell from 9.97 million to 9.59 million – below expectations of a more muted decline to 9.74 million. While job openings remain historically elevated, the March update…
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25bp rate hike at its Tuesday meeting, bringing the cash rate up to 3.85%. This decision follows a pause in April, which provided policymakers some time to assess the full effect of the 350 bps of…
Results of the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey revealed a substantial tightening in credit standards for loans to firms and loans to households for house purchase in Q1. Higher perceptions of risk and lower risk tolerance are behind the tighter conditions and banks…
First Republic (FRC) became the third large-cap bank to fold when regulators seized it over the weekend. Investors took the news in stride on Monday, but several large- and mid-cap regional banks sold off sharply on Tuesday. Our US Investment Strategy…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy and US Political Strategy services, the macro backdrop is favorable for Pharma. as it tends to outperform the market during the slowdown and contraction stages of the business cycle. Q1-2023 GDP came in weaker…
Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.
The April update of the ISM PMI continues to indicate that the US manufacturing sector is weak. Although the headline index increased 0.8 points to 47.1, it remains below 50 in contraction territory and near March’s 22-month low of 46.3. Two of the three…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service remains bullish on the yen’s longer-term outlook. The yen is at capitulation levels. Long positions versus the dollar can be established at USD/JPY 138. The team’s longer-term bullish yen view is anchored…
Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.