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Developed Countries

US Core Capital Goods Orders Disappoint
On the surface, the US Durable Goods Report delivered a positive surprise on Wednesday. Preliminary estimates showed durable goods orders increased by 3.2% in March – significantly above expectations of a 0.7% rise following February’s 1.2% decline. …
Daily Insights
Riksbank: More Hikes Coming
As expected, Sweden’s Riksbank delivered a 50bp rate hike at its meeting on Wednesday, bringing the policy rate to 3.5%. Moreover, the central bank signaled that another hike is likely in June or September, though it indicated that it would likely reduce the…
Daily Insights
The ADXY Is Defying The DXY’s Signal
The performance of Asian currencies – proxied by the ADXY index – is typically a mirror image of the DXY index. This is not surprising. After all, Asian currencies benefit from broad-based dollar weakness. However, this relationship has recently broken…
Daily Insights
US Bank Stress Back In The Limelight
This week’s release of Q1 earnings for First Republic Bank re-focused market attention on stresses in the US banking sector. First Republic’s quarterly results showed a bigger-than-expected drop in deposits for the lender, which caused its stock price to…
Daily Insights
T-Bill Action Reflects Debt Limit Uncertainty
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy and US Political Strategy services conclude that investors should brace for higher T-bill rates and lower bond yields as the debt limit approaches. These moves will be temporary if the debt limit is increased in time, but there…
Daily Insights
First Republic Has Been Distorting The Big Picture

First Republic Bank’s earnings report showed how its struggles have exaggerated the perception of other banks’ distress. Ex-FRC, the banking system appears to be coping with the post-Silicon Valley Bank turmoil pretty well.

US Investment Strategy, US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Doug Peta
Why Is Expected Inflation So Low?

Inflation is hot, but inflation expectations are not. We explain the answer to this apparent puzzle and discuss the investment implications. Plus we identify two commodities that are at imminent risk of reversal.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
PMA Quarterly Outlook: Tomorrow’s Winners and Losers Amongst Private Markets and Alternatives

We see a more positive backdrop for credit providers, with bilateral and structuring features as tailwinds for Private Credit. While there may be potential green shoots in some areas of Private Equity, current valuations are not attractive. We prefer Directional Hedge Funds over Diversifier and Risk Mitigation strategies. Real Estate has been an effective hedge against inflation, but now historically low cap rates are a headwind.

Private Markets & Alternatives
Challenges Ahead for Growth Equity and Late-Stage Venture Capital

We recommend investors to be cautious on Growth Equity and Late-Stage Venture Capital. The marginal dollar is currently best suited for Private Credit at the expense of Private Equity. Our next Special Report will examine why we prefer lenders of capital.

Private Markets & Alternatives
Deteriorating Outlook Weighs On US Consumer Sentiment
The US Conference Board’s Consumer Sentiment survey disappointed on Tuesday. The headline gauge unexpectedly fell to 101.3, below expectations it would remain unchanged at 104.0. The deterioration came on the back of a 5.8-point decline in the Expectations…
Daily Insights

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