Developed Countries
Japanese inflation was perky in March. Headline CPI came in at 3.2%, a slight deceleration from the previous month on a year-on-year basis, but still astronomical by Japanese standards. The real surprise was the acceleration in core CPI (ex-fresh food and…
Last week’s US unemployment insurance claims data showed an increase in both initial and continuing claims. While weekly initial claims rose from 240k to 245k, the jump in continuing claims from 1.80 million to 1.87 million was more notable because it…
The rapid rise in US interest rates that has occurred since early 2022 has been the main driver of global risky asset prices over the past year. This quick tightening in monetary policy has occurred because of a surge in inflation to levels that are well…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, stronger global growth and a narrowing of interest rate differentials between the US and the rest of the world explain why the US dollar has weakened since last October. They expect the greenback…
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 1.2% m/m in March. The March update – which came in below consensus estimates of a 0.7% m/m decrease – marks its 12th consecutive drop. The weakness was broad-based across the index’s components with…
On the surface, results from the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey sent a deeply negative signal about the US manufacturing sector. The headline Business Outlook Index lost 8.1 points in April and at -31.3 it is now at its lowest since May 2020. …
We are increasing our gold price target to $2,200/oz, given the increasing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, rising geopolitical risk, the return of trading blocs and currency debasement risk. These risks also will increase economic uncertainty, which also will be bullish for gold.
The dollar has entered a structural bear market. Although the greenback could get a temporary reprieve during the next recession, investors should position for a weaker dollar over the long haul.
Like most other risk assets, US high-yield corporate bonds sold off in March during the banking turmoil in the US and Europe. The overall Bloomberg US high-yield index spread rose from a low of 389bps on March 6, just before the news on the funding problems…
The Fed’s Beige Book suggests that the slight increase in US economic activity earlier this year is fading. The number of districts reporting modest growth fell to three from six in the February release. Moreover, two of the 12 districts expect a…