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Developed Countries

BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service upgraded Growth to overweight and downgrade Value to underweight on a tactical investment horizon.  Many growth stocks have recently disappointed investors as their sales and earnings growth is slowing. Yet,…

This report looks at the relationship between rate risk and credit risk and how it has changed over time. It also makes the case for favoring agency MBS within an underweight allocation to US spread product.

We Introduce our new macro models for the Eurozone’s equity earnings, which include sectoral forecasts. Find out what they predict for the next six-to-nine months.

The YTD market rally was driven by outperformance of high-quality growth stocks which offer protection in uncertain times. As growth continues to slow, high-quality growth stocks should continue to do well. Hence, we are moving to overweight Growth vs. Value.

In this Special Report, we evaluate future prospects for the Australian dollar and Australian government bonds. The currency remains fundamentally cheap, and positioning is very short, but the AUD will continue to underperform in the near-term due to sluggish global growth. Australian government bonds have had a nice run of outperformance over the past year, but it is now time to take profits with given the uncertainty that the RBA will deliver the rate cuts currently discounted.

US retail sales delivered a negative signal about consumer demand in March. Overall retail sales fell by the most since November, with the 1% m/m drop coming in below expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline following February’s 0.2% m/m decrease. The monthly…
Data released over the past week show a resurgence in short-term US consumer inflation expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Survey’s measure of year-ahead expectations jumped by 1 percentage point to a 5-month high of 4.6% in April. Similarly,…
“Bad news is good news” has emerged as the dominant market narrative over the past month. The early-March bank turmoil caused investors to raise their expectations of a Fed pivot to cutting interest rates in H2 in response to a deteriorating economic outlook.…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, if we really are on the steep side of the aggregate supply curve, then falling demand will largely drive down inflation without driving down employment. Many investors and market commentators…
The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker reaccelerated in March, contradicting the signal from Average Hourly Earnings. The former rose from 6.1% to 6.4% (albeit below the 2022 peak of 6.7%) as the latter eased from 4.6% to 4.2%. Notably, service-sector wage…