With both the Trump and Fed puts drifting lower, we reiterate our above-benchmark duration stance within a government bond overweight and favor Treasury curve steepeners. If the Trump put’s strike price is declining (See The Numbers…
Private Equity’s cash flow problem is showing up in the job market. In August 2024, our Chief Private Markets & Alternatives Strategist Brian Payne highlighted how hard it had become for Private Equity firms to return money to…
Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend staying defensive and adding exposure to EM local currency bonds, which will benefit from US dollar depreciation over the medium and long term. While tariffs are deflationary for US trading…
The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession.
The March ISM Services report sent a recessionary signal, supporting our defensive positioning. The headline index fell sharply to 50.8 from 53.5, missing expectations. New orders dropped to 50.2, while employment collapsed to 46.2…
China’s economy remains subdued, supporting our overweight in onshore local-currency bonds and a selective approach to local equities. March Caixin PMIs showed only marginal improvement, with the composite index rising to 51.8 from…
Our GeoMacro strategists recommend positioning for an exodus out of US assets, with long exposure to gold, the yen, and the Canadian dollar. April 2, “Liberation Day,” is likely to mark the peak in de-globalization hysteria, as the…
Low correlations and regional dispersion are shaping market dynamics, creating selective opportunities outside the US even as near-term risks remain. Asset classes tend to become highly correlated during crisis episodes, limiting…
Remain constructive on Argentine assets as recent market moves are a tactical pullback, not a loss of confidence. The gap between official and parallel exchange rates has widened, prompting concerns that markets are questioning…
Our US Equity strategists recommend caution on quantum computing, as the industry is still too early-stage for reliable investment exposure. Although quantum computing (QC) is on the verge of major breakthroughs, pure-play QC stocks…