Developed Countries
The Swedish PMI’s new orders-to-inventories ratio is sending a positive signal about the outlook for the global manufacturing cycle. The indicator has been recovering over the past two months, indicating that the rise in new orders is outpacing that of…
Investors are scrutinizing US equity sectors as they try to discern new areas of stress and vulnerability. The commercial real estate market is next in line in the "wall of worry." It is particularly concerning that small- and mid-sized banks, vulnerable to…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that the Fed’s use of its balance sheet to provide reserves to distressed banks means that interest rates will be higher than in an alternative scenario where the Fed didn’t deploy its balance sheet in that…
The recent uncertainty regarding the health of the banking systems in the US and Europe is not having any material impact on overall financial conditions or economic sentiment. The aggressive rate cut expectations, especially in the US, are unlikely to be realized. Although the macro growth and policy backdrop remains unfriendly for corporate debt on both sides of the Atlantic.
China is launching a diplomatic charm offensive to improve relations with the world excluding the United States. But China’s proposals in Ukraine and the Middle East are overrated in their ability to restore global stability and reduce geopolitical risk.
The German IFO delivered a positive surprise on Monday. The Business Climate Index increased from 91.1 to a 13-month high of 93.3, beating consensus estimates it would remain broadly unchanged. An unanticipated 2.8-point rise in the Expectations component…
Friday’s flash PMI releases suggest that price pressures continue to moderate in both the US and the Euro Area. Both regions recorded the greatest improvement in supplier delivery times since the beginning of their respective surveys. And although…
According to flash PMIs, service sector activity accelerated across most major DM economies in March. In the US, the preliminary services PMI unexpectedly increased by 3.2 points to an 11-month high of 53.8, beating estimates of a decline to 50.3. Similarly,…
To the extent that Treasury yields typically rise when US economic data is strong, and decline when growth momentum disappoints, changes in bond yields have historically moved in tandem with the level of economic data surprises. However, the two series…
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) bull-bear survey shows a deterioration in investor sentiment following the flare up of bank tensions earlier this month. The latest results show that a net 28% of investors are downbeat on the stock…