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Developed Countries

What Happens In Japan Once The BoJ Abandons YCC?
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy & Global Fixed Income Strategy services, there are a few shifts that could be immediately expected with an end to the BoJ’s Yield Curve Control (YCC) program. First, the outperformance of stocks…
Daily Insights
European Defense On The Offense

The Russia-Ukraine war has prompted Europe to ramp up its defense spending. This will greatly benefit its defense industry, especially if defense coordination across the EU increases. 

European Investment Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Jeremie Peloso, Guy Russell
The BoJ Under New Leadership: Sayonara To 0% Rates?

The Bank of Japan is about to get new leadership when Kazuo Ueda takes over as governor in April. Will there be a new monetary policy to go along with the new governor? We attempt to answer that question, and what that means for global bond markets and the yen, in this Special Report.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
US Consumer Morale Unexpectedly Deteriorates
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey showed an unexpected drop in household morale. The headline index’s 3.6-point decline to 63.4 surprised consensus estimates it would remain unchanged. The decline came on the…
Daily Insights
The Fallout To Growth From The US Regional Bank Turmoil
Based on FDIC data, US banks with less than $250 billion in assets account for about half of C&I lending, and over half of mortgage and commercial real estate lending. As such, the turmoil in the banking sector will inevitably weigh on economic activity.…
Daily Insights
On The Risk Of Recession
The banking tumult is shining light on the impact of the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle. In the one year since the FOMC’s first rate hike last March, the fed funds rate has increased by a massive 450 basis points, making the current tightening cycle one of…
Daily Insights
When Bad News Is Good News?
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the odds of a policy mistake whereby the ECB pushes interest rates to 4% or more have melted. On a near-term basis, the Credit Suisse saga will continue to weigh on the euro. The ECB will…
Daily Insights
The Fed’s Policy Response
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that while the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak, there will not be rate cuts anytime soon The team’s view remains that the Treasury market response to recent banking turmoil is overdone. Depending…
Daily Insights
How Will The Fed Respond?

Depending on market volatility during the next few trading days, the Fed will either lift rates by 25 bps next week or pause its tightening cycle. Either way, the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak but rate cuts won’t be coming anytime soon.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
China’s Middle East Diplomacy Eclipses SVB

China’s victory in getting KSA and Iran to restore diplomatic relations is of far greater consequence to commodity markets than the past weeks’ bank failures in the US. For China, further success in sorting long-standing security issues in the Middle East could incentivize oil and gas capex and affect oil flows. With short- to medium-term fundamentals largely unchanged, we are keeping our 2023 and 2024 Brent forecasts similar to last month, at $95/bbl and $110/bbl, respectively.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam

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