Developed Countries
Our Global Investment Strategists remain defensive, expecting a global recession in the coming months unless the trade war de-escalates meaningfully. They maintain a year-end S&P 500 target of 4450, with downside risk to 4200.While reciprocal tariffs were…
The combination of dollar weakness and rising US yields suggests global investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.
China prepares to devalue the yuan in response to US tariffs. Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend shorting CNH, downgrading offshore Chinese equities, and staying bearish on global risk assets. Beijing sees the tariffs as a declaration of economic war,…
Dips in European assets remain long-term buying opportunities, even though short-term risks abound. A notable feature of the recent selloff is that US safe havens failed to rally. In a global growth scare, both the US dollar and Treasuries typically benefit.…
March’s cooler CPI print reinforces our defensive positioning as it points to softening growth that the Fed cannot address yet. Headline CPI came in at -0.1% m/m (2.4% y/y), and core rose just 0.1% m/m, slowing to 2.8% y/y from 3.1%. Core services inflation…
China’s aggressive retaliation against U.S. tariffs will enable President Trump to shift from punishing allies and redirect the trade war toward China. If Beijing does not react to the latest tariffs by doubling its fiscal stimulus, it indicates they are planning something different, as China will encounter economic destabilization. The likelihood of a hybrid military pressure on Taiwan will rise.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2025.