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Developed Countries

In Banks We Trust?
Thursday’s sharp US equity selloff – which saw the S&P 500 lose 1.8% – extended to Friday, bringing down the US benchmark by another 1.4% and weighing on stocks globally. The catalyst for these moves was an announcement from SVB Financial Group of a…
Daily Insights
Implications Of Poor Health In The US
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, over the long run, the deterioration in health trends in the US can weigh on labor supply and productivity, put upward pressure on bond yields, and hurt equity multiples. Even before Covid…
Daily Insights
Month In Review: The Dollar Rebounds

In this report, we look at data releases over the last month and implications for currency markets.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
In Health And In Sickness

This week’s <i>Special Report</i>, written by Miroslav Aradski, highlights the worrisome deterioration in health trends in the US, which began before the pandemic. Over the long haul, this could weigh on labor supply and productivity, put upward pressure on bond yields, and hurt equity multiples.

Global Investment Strategy by Miroslav Aradski
Fed Beige Book Confirms Recent Economic Resilience
The Fed’s Beige Book confirms the recent slew of stronger-than-anticipated economic data releases suggesting that economic activity firmed at the start of the year. In particular, six of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reported a modest expansion in the pace…
Daily Insights
From Just-In-Time To Just-In-Case Inventories

The development of trading blocs and the rise of economic warfare will lead to the inefficient allocation of resources. Higher fiscal outlays and tight commodity supplies will feed into energy prices driving headline inflation. It also will drive demand for inventories as hedges against supply volatility globally higher. We remain long equity exposure via ETFs to oil and gas producers, and metals miners. We also retain our exposure to commodities via the COMT ETF.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
The US Labor Market Remains Tight
The US labor market continues to show signs of resilience. According to the January JOLTS report, job openings decreased by 3.6% m/m to 10.8 million. This reading came in higher than economists’ expectations of 10.6 million. The number of hires increased…
Daily Insights
No Surprise From The Bank Of Canada
The BoC held its overnight rate at 4.5%, as telegraphed by the Governing Council at its January policy meeting. The BoC is widely expected to be among the first major DM central banks to end its tightening cycle, alongside the Reserve Bank of Australia and…
Daily Insights
The Apex Of EUR/JPY?
The strength in the euro versus the yen since May 2020 can be divided into two phases. During the first phase, from May 2020 to June 2021, the ebbing of the worst of the pandemic and the re-opening of the global economy boosted the pro-cyclical euro relative…
Daily Insights
Why European Inflation Will Slump Later This Year

The combination of collapsing energy inflation and cooling wage inflation means that euro area core inflation will slump later this year. We discuss the consequences.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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