Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Developed Countries

FICC
The BoJ Under New Leadership: Sayonara To 0% Rates?
Special Report

The Bank of Japan is about to get new leadership when Kazuo Ueda takes over as governor in April. Will there be a new monetary policy to go along with the new governor? We attempt to answer that question, and what that means for global bond markets and the yen, in this Special Report.

Chester Ntonifor
3 years ago
BondsCurrencies
Essentials
US Consumer Morale Unexpectedly Deteriorates
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey showed an unexpected drop in household morale. The headline index’s 3.6-point decline to 63.4 surprised consensus estimates it would remain unchanged. The decline came on the…
3 years ago
Essentials
The Fallout To Growth From The US Regional Bank Turmoil
Based on FDIC data, US banks with less than $250 billion in assets account for about half of C&I lending, and over half of mortgage and commercial real estate lending. As such, the turmoil in the banking sector will inevitably weigh on economic activity.…
3 years ago
Essentials
On The Risk Of Recession
The banking tumult is shining light on the impact of the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle. In the one year since the FOMC’s first rate hike last March, the fed funds rate has increased by a massive 450 basis points, making the current tightening cycle one of…
3 years ago
Essentials
When Bad News Is Good News?
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the odds of a policy mistake whereby the ECB pushes interest rates to 4% or more have melted. On a near-term basis, the Credit Suisse saga will continue to weigh on the euro. The ECB will…
3 years ago
Essentials
The Fed’s Policy Response
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that while the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak, there will not be rate cuts anytime soon The team’s view remains that the Treasury market response to recent banking turmoil is overdone. Depending…
3 years ago
FICC
How Will The Fed Respond?

Depending on market volatility during the next few trading days, the Fed will either lift rates by 25 bps next week or pause its tightening cycle. Either way, the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak but rate cuts won’t be coming anytime soon.

Ryan Swift
3 years ago
Bonds
FICC
China’s Middle East Diplomacy Eclipses SVB

China’s victory in getting KSA and Iran to restore diplomatic relations is of far greater consequence to commodity markets than the past weeks’ bank failures in the US. For China, further success in sorting long-standing security issues in the Middle East could incentivize oil and gas capex and affect oil flows. With short- to medium-term fundamentals largely unchanged, we are keeping our 2023 and 2024 Brent forecasts similar to last month, at $95/bbl and $110/bbl, respectively.

Ashwin Shyam
3 years ago
Commodities
Essentials
US Retail Sales Decline Following January’s Strong Print
US retail sales delivered a relatively somber signal about consumer demand in February. The advance estimate’s 0.4% m/m decline in February came in line with expectations of a decrease following January’s upwardly revised 3.2% m/m gain. Notably, the…
3 years ago
Essentials
Will US Homebuilders Continue Outperforming?
US homebuilder sentiment has been consistently recovering since the beginning of the year. The results of the March NAHB survey show an unexpected 2-point increase in the Housing Market Index which is now at its highest since September. The latest…
3 years ago

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bonds Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults See more Topics