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Developed Countries

Recency Bias & Comparisons With The 2001 Cycle
Recency Bias & Comparisons With The 2001 Cycle …
Daily Insights
Fire Up The Machines

US domestic politics, hypo-globalization, and Great Power Competition favor a revival of US manufacturing capacity. The industrial sector will benefit from the attempt to rebuild US manufacturing. Go long physical infrastructure and defense stocks. Find opportunities to take a long position on the universe versus the metaverse.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
China’s $100 Trillion Housing Bubble Reaches Its Limit

China’s housing market adjustment will be protracted, causing several years of sub-par growth in the world’s second largest economy. We go through the major investment implications.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Monthly Portfolio Update: This Isn’t Going To End Well

The rebound in growth is pushing up inflation. More aggressive monetary policy is likely to trigger recession over the next 12 months or so. Investors should stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Which Consumer Sentiment Gauge To Trust?
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index fell from 106 to 102.9 in February, disappointing expectations of an increase to 108.5. In particular, a 6.3-point drop in the expectations component – which fell to its lowest level since July – drove the…
Daily Insights
Too Early For A US Housing Market Turnaround
Some US housing indicators have been improving over the past few months. In particular, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rebounded in January and February, suggesting that homebuilder sentiment is firming. Similarly, pending home sales jumped by 8.1%…
Daily Insights
Will Hot Inflation Prolong The ECB’s Tightening Cycle?
Government bond yields climbed higher across the Eurozone on Tuesday with the rate on the German 10-year bund ending the day at its highest since mid-2011. The proximate cause for the bond selloff is new inflation data suggesting that price pressures remain…
Daily Insights
Short Euro/Yen
A lot of ink has been spilled of late on the Bank of Japan’s incoming governor and the impact this will have on the central’s bank Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Japanese inflation has been climbing steadily – national and Tokyo, headline and core measures…
Daily Insights
US Credit Cycle: The Frog Is In The Pot
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook implies that fair value spreads for both investment grade and high-yield will rise during the next 6-12 months. The team’s base case view is that the US economy will avoid a recession this year.…
Daily Insights
Recency Bias And Comparisons With The 2001 Cycle

Bulls and bears are perplexed because they suffer from recency bias. The investment roadmap and framework of the past 15 to 20 years should not be used to analyze current US financial markets. US corporate earnings will likely plunge substantially even in the case of a mild recession.

Emerging Markets Strategy, US Equity Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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