Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Developed Countries

After Goldilocks

The US economy will experience a period of benign disinflation over the next few quarters. Beyond this goldilocks period, either the economy will slip into a mild recession in 2024, or more ominously, a second wave of inflation will prompt the Fed to slam on the brakes, leading to a deep recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Deteriorating Housing Markets In Canada And New Zealand
The latest data show a deterioration in the housing markets in Canada and New Zealand. In particular, the 7.3% m/m decline in Canadian building permits in December fell below expectations of a more muted 3.9% m/m contraction. Similarly, the number of building…
Daily Insights
The BoE Is Nearing The End
As anticipated, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50bps to 4% on Thursday, with two of the nine MPC members voting to keep it unchanged. While the central bank acknowledged that CPI inflation has likely peaked, it noted that domestic pressures…
Daily Insights
Will The ECB “Stay The Course”?
As expected, the ECB raised its three policy rates by 50bps on Thursday and signaled that it intends to raise interest rates by another 50bps at its next meeting in March. During the press conference, President Christine Lagarde underscored that the decision…
Daily Insights
A Dove In Hawk’s Clothing

This US Bond Strategy Insight discusses what we learned from yesterday’s FOMC meeting and press conference, and discusses the implications of the market’s reaction.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Fed Downshifts, Signals More Hikes To Come
As expected, the Fed downshifted the pace of rate hikes once again and delivered a 25bp rate increase at its Wednesday meeting. Changes to the post-meeting press release support the decision to shift to a less hawkish stance. In particular, the…
Daily Insights
US Labor Market Is Still Too Tight
Results of the December JOLTS survey indicate that the US labor market remains extremely tight. Job openings unexpectedly jumped from 10.4 million to 11.0 million, surprising expectations of a decline to 10.3 million. As such, the job openings rate increased…
Daily Insights
Biden's Political Capital In 2023

President Biden’s political capital has fallen as he enters a challenging year that will include a domestic faceoff with the House Republicans and foreign crises stemming from China, Russia, and Iran. Stay defensive and prefer bonds over equities.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
Monthly Portfolio Update: The Key Question For The Fed

When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
The Web 2.0 Bubble Is Bursting. Here’s What It Means

The Web 2.0 bubble is bursting, with far-reaching consequences for US stock market behaviour, sector allocation, and global asset allocation.

Counterpoint

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics