Developed Countries
Private Equity’s cash flow problem is showing up in the job market. In August 2024, our Chief Private Markets & Alternatives Strategist Brian Payne highlighted how hard it had become for Private Equity firms to return money to their investors, setting the…
Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend staying defensive and adding exposure to EM local currency bonds, which will benefit from US dollar depreciation over the medium and long term. While tariffs are deflationary for US trading partners and will drive…
We reiterate our defensive global asset allocation, as risk assets face an asymmetric outlook whether growth slows or re-accelerates. The March US jobs report came in stronger than expected, with payrolls rising by 228k. However, the three-month moving…
With both the Trump and Fed puts drifting lower, we reiterate our above-benchmark duration stance within a government bond overweight and favor Treasury curve steepeners. If the Trump put’s strike price is declining (See The Numbers), Friday’s remarks by Fed…
The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession.
Our GeoMacro strategists recommend positioning for an exodus out of US assets, with long exposure to gold, the yen, and the Canadian dollar. April 2, “Liberation Day,” is likely to mark the peak in de-globalization hysteria, as the trade war acts as a…
The March ISM Services report sent a recessionary signal, supporting our defensive positioning. The headline index fell sharply to 50.8 from 53.5, missing expectations. New orders dropped to 50.2, while employment collapsed to 46.2 from 53.9. Prices paid also…
China’s economy remains subdued, supporting our overweight in onshore local-currency bonds and a selective approach to local equities. March Caixin PMIs showed only marginal improvement, with the composite index rising to 51.8 from 51.5. Both manufacturing…
Markets had a risk-off reaction to the Trump administration’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing the case for defensive portfolio positioning. The proposal includes a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, a 25% tariff on foreign-made vehicles, and…
Our US Equity strategists recommend caution on quantum computing, as the industry is still too early-stage for reliable investment exposure. Although quantum computing (QC) is on the verge of major breakthroughs, pure-play QC stocks remain unprofitable and…