Developed Countries
While price pressures appear to have peaked in the US and Eurozone, the latest monthly report suggests that inflation is still rising Down Under. CPI inflation in Australia accelerated from 6.9% y/y to 7.3% y/y in November, led by housing, food and…
Tokyo’s CPI inflation firmed in December. The headline measure accelerated from 3.7% y/y to 4.0% y/y while the core figure increased from 2.4% y/y to 2.7% y/y. Notably, ex-fresh food CPI inflation grew by a wider-than-expected 4.0% y/y from 3.6% y/y.…
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is sending a positive signal about the US economy. Its latest update estimates annualized real GDP growth of 4.1% in Q4 2022 – above the Fed’s 1.8% estimate of long-run trend GDP growth. Notably, according to the model,…
The main beneficiary from China’s exit from the zero-Covid policy will be consumer spending—particularly on services. Meanwhile, given that the impact on the industrial sector will be much more muted, it will not lead to a significant increase in Chinese…
The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index’s continued deterioration underscores frail economic conditions in the US. In particular, December’s 2.1-point decrease reflects a decline in the share of business owners that expect an improvement in business…
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2023.
The ISM Services PMI slid by 6.9 points to 49.6 in December, against expectations it would ease to 55.0, and marking the first contraction in service activity in 30 months. Outside of the pandemic-related slump, the December print marks the weakest reading…
Various measures have recently been pointing to an improvement in Euro Area sentiment. The Sentix overall index of investor confidence rose for the third consecutive month in January, climbing 3.5 points to -17.5 – its highest since June 2022. Notably, the…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service’s Combined Mechanical Valuation Indicator (CMVI) framework favors European defensive sectors that are cheap within the defensive equity universe. The CMVI provides a standardized aggregate of…
This digest version of our Special Report contains its conclusion along with a high-level review of how we reached it. It is structured identically to the full document, but with less than half the word count, so a reader can swiftly absorb the punch line while easily moving between the versions to zoom in on the details most relevant to his/her process.