Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the seeds of its own demise. Markets price expectations efficiently but lack perfect foresight, making data surprises…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of our European Investment Strategy service. Mathieu believes the recent outperformance of European over US risk assets is unlikely to last over the next 3-6 months.…
The March flash estimate for European Consumer Confidence missed estimates, and fell to -14.5 from -13.6 in February. This negative reading is the first European sentiment number missing expectations since January. The sentiment…
The March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index beat expectations, but still fell from 18.1 to 12.5, significantly down from January’s lofty 44.3 reading. Most activity components slowed except for current employment and work hours.…
The Bank of England held its policy rate at 4.5%, with only one MPC member dissenting to cut 25 bps. The BoE signaled a slower pace of easing, as inflation remains elevated while global growth becomes increasingly uncertain. …
After a period of relative stability and progress towards policy orthodoxy, politics are again haunting Turkish assets. President Erdogan jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a political rival from the opposition party gaining…
The Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25%-to-4.5% as expected, and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The FOMC remains comfortable waiting and assessing the impact of recent and upcoming policy changes. The dots reflected…
Recent years were marked by US equities rebounding from each drawdown to re-test all-time highs. The best absolute-return strategy has been to “buy the dip” and close your eyes. Is it still the case? The short answer is no, as…
The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.50%, but maintained a hawkish bias, making it the only G10 central bank in a hiking cycle, as the hot labor market creates sustained domestic price pressures. More rate increases are…
Our European strategists looked at the European defense sector after the massive rally following Germany’s fiscal turnaround. The rally in European defense stocks, up over 100% since their March 2023 recommendation, is…