Developed Countries
Our US Equity strategists recommend caution on quantum computing, as the industry is still too early-stage for reliable investment exposure. Although quantum computing (QC) is on the verge of major breakthroughs, pure-play QC stocks remain unprofitable and…
Remain constructive on Argentine assets as recent market moves are a tactical pullback, not a loss of confidence. The gap between official and parallel exchange rates has widened, prompting concerns that markets are questioning President Milei’s liberalizing…
Our Global Fixed Income strategists recommend maintaining an underweight allocation to corporate credit versus government bonds in global fixed income portfolios. Within corporates, they are neutral on the US, UK, Japan, and Australia, and underweight on…
Labor market data continues to cool, reinforcing our overweight in government bonds and above-benchmark duration stance. February job openings fell to 7.6m, below expectations. Declining quits and rising layoffs signal that labor market slack is increasing.…
Eurozone inflation is cooling steadily, supporting our tactical overweight in German bunds versus European equities and increasing the odds of an April ECB cut. Headline HICP eased to 2.2% y/y in March from 2.3%, while core came in cooler than expected at…
The March ISM Manufacturing adds to the recent stagflationary impulse, but markets remain focused on the growth drag, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. The headline index fell more than expected to 49.0 from 50.3, with new orders and employment…
April 2 may mark peak trade tensions, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, supporting our underweight on risk assets and industrial commodities. The USTR’s long-awaited report on trade barriers will guide the next phase of US trade policy. While the…
Going into April, MacroQuant recommends a modest underweight on stocks, offset by an overweight on bonds and cash. While MacroQuant is modestly bearish on stocks, we suspect that the downside risks to equities may be greater than what the model assumes.
Going into April, MacroQuant recommends a modest underweight on stocks, offset by an overweight on bonds and cash. While MacroQuant is modestly bearish on stocks, we suspect that the downside risks to equities may be greater than what the model assumes.
Markets are responding to the growth drag of stagflation, not the inflation impulse, reinforcing our defensive stance. Despite rising short-term inflation pressures in the US, risk assets and bond yields continue to move together, with the stock–bond yield…