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Developed Countries

European Housing: A Market Of Ice And Fire

What is the outlook for the European housing market amid rising mortgage rates and the energy crisis? Does housing represent a systemic risk? Can households weather the storm? And what are the opportunities, if any?

European Investment Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso
US LEI Deteriorates Further In October
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) declined by a larger-than-expected 0.8% m/m in October, marking a deterioration following the previous month’s downwardly revised 0.5% m/m contraction. Negative contributions from consumer…
Daily Insights
UK New Fiscal Plan Improves Outlook For Gilts
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement unveiled a new fiscal plan that marked a U-turn from his predecessor’s mini budget announcement in late-September. The GBP 55bn plan includes GBP 30bn in spending cuts and GBP 25bn in tax…
Daily Insights
Tight Financial Conditions Will Choke Off Growth
The latest equity rally and dollar selloff drove the recent easing in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Indexes for both the US and Euro Area. To the extent that financial conditions gauge the availability of funding in an economy, this is a positive…
Daily Insights
AMZN, TSLA Explain Consumer Discretionary Sharp Underperformance
The US equity rally over the past month has been broad-based across nearly all sectors – with just over half of them posting double digit gains. The Consumer Discretionary Sector is the main outlier. It is the only S&P 500 sector that has not benefitted…
Daily Insights
A Sustained Peak In The Dollar Needs Global Growth To Bottom

The narrative that the US can tolerate much higher interest rates, compared to the rest of the world has helped the dollar in 2022. In this report, we examine the sustainability of this thesis, from our holistic assessment of global growth indicators.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Q3 Japan GDP Shrinks On Yen Weakness
Japan’s economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% q/q in Q3 (annualized decline of 1.2%), following 1.1% q/q growth in Q2 (annualized 4.6%) and disappointing expectations of a lower yet still positive growth rate. However, this figure understates the health…
Daily Insights
Hurdles For The Loonie
Although the Canadian dollar has been underperforming its G10 peers since the greenback’s September 27 peak, it has held up relatively well on a year-to-date basis. Going forward, both the outlook for BoC policy vis-à-vis the Fed, as well as oil price…
Daily Insights
EU Oil Embargoes, Price Caps, Insurance Bans Loom

Our 4Q22 and 2023 Brent forecasts remain at $100/bbl and $116/bbl. Upside price risk continues to dominate oil markets. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs to retain exposure to oil and gas producers’ equities, and higher commodity prices and further backwardation, particularly in copper.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
Stagflation In The UK
Price pressures remain intense in the UK. Headline CPI inflation jumped from 10.1% y/y to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October – surpassing expectations of a milder acceleration to 10.7%. Similarly, the month-on-month rate surged from 0.5% to 2.0%. Meanwhile,…
Daily Insights

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