Developed Countries
The SEK’s sharp rally is losing steam as local data weakens and EUR strength looks stretched. After appreciating more than 10% against the USD year-to-date, the krona is now showing signs of fatigue. Recent Swedish data has disappointed, with the Economic…
Markets are responding to the growth drag of stagflation, not the inflation impulse, reinforcing our defensive stance. Despite rising short-term inflation pressures in the US, risk assets and bond yields continue to move together, with the stock–bond yield…
With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.
Our Commodities Strategy team advises against positioning for a near-term rebound in lithium prices, given the current headwinds from soft EV sales growth. They recommend patience, with more compelling opportunities likely to emerge later in the decade as…
Japan’s inflation pulse remains firm, reinforcing our long JPY stance and cautious view on JGBs. Tokyo CPI for March surprised to the upside, with headline inflation slightly up at 2.9% y/y and “core core” accelerating above the BoJ’s target to 2.2% from…
Markets may be bracing for April 2, but the real surprise could be how unsurprising it ends up being. Our Chart Of The Week comes from GeoMacro Chief Strategist Marko Papic, who sees the looming tariff salvo as the peak of de-globalization panic. With Beltway…
February US PCE data adds to the stagflationary tone, reinforcing our overweight duration stance and tactical short in front-end rates. Core PCE inflation rose 0.4% m/m, lifting the year-on-year rate to 2.8%, matching the Fed’s 2025 projection. Headline held…
This morning’s weak consumer spending and strong inflation data reinforce our sense that the US economy is heading toward recession.
UK financial conditions have tightened just as economic surprises have turned negative, an uncomfortable combination that reinforces our tactical positioning. We remain overweight UK gilts within a global bond portfolio and are tactically short GBP/USD from…
Macro momentum is deteriorating rapidly, and we remain defensively positioned as risks build. Business and consumer confidence have fallen sharply, and while the US post-election period began with optimism, policy uncertainty has since taken over, prompting a…