Developed Countries
The Fed’s tone has taken a decidedly dovish turn during the past week and, despite September’s hot CPI print, there is mounting evidence that a period of disinflation is coming. This makes the case for a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle in Q1 or Q2 of next year.
The Empire State Manufacturing index decreased by 7.6 points to -9.1 in October, below expectations of a milder decline. The diffusion index has been in negative territory for five out of the past six months. Notably, shipments fell 19.9 points to -0.3, new…
The latest reading from the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker suggests that inflationary pressures in the US economy may be starting to ease. Median wage growth decelerated to 6.3% in September on a three-month moving average basis, following three…
For most of last year and the first half of this year, the market consensus was that the Fed would be among the most hawkish major global central banks. As such, interest rate differentials provided a tailwind for the US dollar over this period. Indeed,…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the German yield curve will invert and that German 10-year Bunds are a buy. Even though a global recession looms, central banks are unlikely to pause their tightening cycles until inflation…
The September CPI report was disappointing, but we still see several signs pointing to a rapid decline in inflation. Our constructive near-term view on stocks and the economy remains intact.
The ECB will continue to lift rates due to sticky inflation and a tight labor market. Will it be enough to push long-term German yields higher?
On the surface, the US retail sales report for September was weaker than expected. The level of overall retail sales was unchanged – a slowdown from 0.4% m/m in August and disappointing expectations of a 0.2% m/m increase. However, this headline figure…
Output from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model is often used to obtain a timely read of economic conditions in the US. The GDPNow model has been consistently predicting positive quarter-on-quarter growth for Q3. Its latest estimate on Friday suggests that GDP…
Following a six-day stretch of falling equity prices, the S&P 500 jumped by 2.6% on Thursday. The timing of the abrupt reversal was curious. It occurred on the day of the hotter-than-anticipated September CPI inflation report. The initial sharp selloff…