After affirming he does not look at the stock market, President Trump said he cannot exclude the possibility of a recession as he rushes to implement his agenda before the 2026 midterms. Could a President willingly start a recession…
This report is our Part III series on valuation and subsequent returns, where we recalibrate our short-term models to emphasize signals over the next nine-to-twelve months. We will henceforth call these models STTM: Short Term Timing…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, strategist in our Global Fixed Income strategy team. Robert digs into Eurozone employment dynamics. January data showed that unemployment remains at record lows, but regional…
The February US jobs report was slightly weaker than expected, reflecting a slowing but still healthy labor market. At 151k, payrolls missed estimates. January’s number was revised down from 143k to 125k, bringing the 3-month moving…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there is no “Trump put”, and acknowledged the administration’s policy could create short-term pain to achieve long-term gains. The concept of a “market put” implies policymakers would aim to put…
This morning’s employment report showed solid job growth, but recent consumer spending indicators are more concerning. The risk of recession starting within the next few months has increased. We suggest some important indicators for…
The US economy is set to enter a recession within the next few months. Stay underweight equities and overweight cash. Look to increase fixed-income duration exposure over the coming months. The euro is likely to strengthen and…
The ECB cut 25 bps as expected, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. President Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary process is “well on track” and described the policy stance as “meaningfully less restrictive”, signalling…
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists assessed retail real estate opportunities. Retail Real Estate is a contrarian opportunity, with investor sentiment at rock-bottom levels despite shifting consumption patterns.…
The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key…