Developed Countries
The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key risks, investment opportunities, and our updated call on the ECB’s terminal rate. Read our full report for actionable insights.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.
In light of President Trump’s address to Congress and the ebb-and-flow of tariff announcements, our Geopolitical strategists assessed the constraints on the administration’s disruptive agenda. Trump’s ability to implement his agenda is strongest in early…
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a slowing economy, a moderating labor market, and rising price pressures. The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators showing slower growth and decreased confidence following the post-election…
ISM Services Sends Stagflationary Signal
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Our European strategists see Europe escaping its liquidity trap, which will create a structural tailwind for European assets. Europe’s resilience amid global shocks is supported by a shift away from precautionary money demand, signaling increased…
Leading US growth indicators have slowed, with economic surprises now in negative territory. However, Monday’s ISM Manufacturing showed that while activity is slowing due to tariffs uncertainty, supply-side price pressures are increasing. Our Price…
The Trump administration launched its biggest trade action on Tuesday, levying 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, and an additional 10% to current tariffs on Chinese imports. Given its crucial role in US supply chains, Canadian energy only sees a 10%…
Our Geopolitical strategists received a lot of client questions following rapid US political developments, and addressed them in their latest report. US policy uncertainty is spiking, driving global uncertainty higher. Tariff implementation in March and…
February flash inflation for the Eurozone was slightly hotter than expected but nonetheless declined, with both headline and core inflation falling 0.1% to 2.4% y/y and 2.6%, respectively. Services inflation also declined to 3.7% from 3.9%. While Europe…