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Developed Countries

US Employment: Holding Up But Fraying At The Edges
The February US jobs report was slightly weaker than expected, reflecting a slowing but still healthy labor market. At 151k, payrolls missed estimates. January’s number was revised down from 143k to 125k, bringing the 3-month moving average below 200k. The…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Euro Area Unemployment: More Than Meets The Eye
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, strategist in our Global Fixed Income strategy team. Robert digs into Eurozone employment dynamics. January data showed that unemployment remains at record lows, but regional disparities persist. Structural…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
No Trump Put?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there is no “Trump put”, and acknowledged the administration’s policy could create short-term pain to achieve long-term gains. The concept of a “market put” implies policymakers would aim to put a floor under the equity…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Bond Market Braces For A Slowdown

This morning’s employment report showed solid job growth, but recent consumer spending indicators are more concerning. The risk of recession starting within the next few months has increased. We suggest some important indicators for investors to track in the current environment.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
A Recession Is Imminent

The US economy is set to enter a recession within the next few months. Stay underweight equities and overweight cash. Look to increase fixed-income duration exposure over the coming months. The euro is likely to strengthen and European stocks should outperform US stocks over the next month or so, but these trends will reverse by the middle of this year.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
ECB: Nearing Neutral With A Complex Outlook
The ECB cut 25 bps as expected, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. President Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary process is “well on track” and described the policy stance as “meaningfully less restrictive”, signalling the ECB is nearing…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Retail Real Estate: Alive, Well, And Unnoticed
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists assessed retail real estate opportunities.  Retail Real Estate is a contrarian opportunity, with investor sentiment at rock-bottom levels despite shifting consumption patterns. Click-and-collect,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Germany Will Force The ECB’s Hand, Eventually

The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key risks, investment opportunities, and our updated call on the ECB’s terminal rate. Read our full report for actionable insights.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Recession Risk Is Back

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Fed Beige Book Shows Slowing Growth, And Rising Price Pressures
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a slowing economy, a moderating labor market, and rising price pressures.  The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators showing slower growth and decreased confidence following the post-election…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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