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Developed Countries

Watch This Indicator For A -20 Percent Market Slump

If the 130-day complexity of the Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond collapsed to 1.30, it would signal the risk of a -20 percent market slump. This indicator, at 1.37, is not yet at critical, but we recommend that you keep a close eye on it on our website. Plus: an update on our recent trades.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Reset The Timer

Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Bonds And The Fiscal Policy Risk

Questions about fiscal risks and their impact on bond markets have become more frequent in client conversations. This Special Report provides a framework to assess a country’s fiscal sustainability and how it affects its bond market outlook. On an individual country basis, Spain has shown a remarkable turnaround in its fiscal sustainability outlook while the fiscal outlook for France continues to deteriorate.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
Understanding Bessenomics And Its Market Implications
Our Emerging Market strategists published a follow-up piece to their Bessenomics note where they assess the new Treasury Secretary plan’s impact on markets. Lower interest rates are central to Bessenomics. The Trump administration is expected to pressure…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Taking Stock Of Stock Market Technicals
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Melanie Kermadjian, from our Global Investment Strategy team.  The S&P 500 has been in a bull market for nearly five years and is currently up 2.5% YTD. A lot has been thrown at the US stock market so far this…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Consumers See Increased Risks Of Stagflation
The preliminary February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates, falling to 67.8 from 71.1 in January. The decrease came from both expectations and the assessment of current conditions. Measures of 1-year and 5-10 year inflation…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Jobs Report Shows Resilient Labor Market
The January US jobs report was solid, reflecting a healthy labor market. Payrolls rose by less than expected at 143k, down from an upwardly-revised 307k in December, leaving the 3-month moving average at 237k. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 4.0%…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Europe Is Next

Europe is about to become President Trump’s next target. The good news: a US/EU trade war will be short as common ground to achieve a deal exists. The bad news: European assets remain at the mercy of heightened uncertainty. How should investors position themselves in this tricky context?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Talking Down The 10-Year

Some thoughts on this morning's employment data and Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent attempts to talk down the 10-year Treasury yield.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
BoE Cuts, But Sends Mixed Message
The Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.5%, with two members of the MPC voting to cut 50 bps instead. The BoE acknowledged “substantial progress on disinflation”, driven by a tight policy stance and stabilized inflation expectations. The dovish…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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