Our Global Asset Allocation strategists published their monthly tactical asset allocation report, where they illustrate booming expectations in the US will be self-limiting. For the first time since 2022, US GDP growth is…
Economic data released over the holiday period extended recent trends, reflecting a softening global economy with resilient US growth, and an ailing manufacturing sector. The December global manufacturing PMI declined to 49.6…
Our US Bond Strategy team published their outlook for the Fed in 2025. They expect more cuts than the 50 bps signaled by the Fed at its December meeting. Core PCE inflation is tracking well below the Fed’s 2.5% forecast, while…
Paradoxically, raging optimism on the US economy is making a reacceleration in growth less likely in 2025. The reaction of the bond market has made the Fed rethink its cutting campaign. Markets are also constraining Trump’s agenda.…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists upheld their yearly tradition of putting together reading or listening recommendations for the holiday period. This year, our strategists and research teams sent their best recommendations for…
US November housing data was mixed, but still reflected a weak picture. Housing starts were down 1.8% m/m, below expectations of a 2.6% increase. However, building permits were stronger than expected, increasing 6.1%. Units under…
Our Global Fixed Income and FX strategists published their 2025 outlook, and provide five key views for the year ahead. Duration revival: After three years of underperformance versus cash, government bonds will…
The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25 bps to a 4.25%-4.5% range, as expected. However, it was a “hawkish cut”; the FOMC signaled a slower pace of easing ahead. The statement signalled less urgency, saying…
The November UK CPI, in line with estimates, hit an eight-month high, accelerating from 2.3% y/y to 2.6%. Core and services inflation were also strong at 3.5% (vs. 3.3% in October) and 5.0% (flat from October), respectively.…