Developed Countries
Our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) team believes the US economy is not as strong as commonly believed, and that equity valuations offer little buffer given the risk of incoming macro shocks. The US economy is more fragile than it appears, with risks…
The December US Producer Price Index came in cooler than expected, increasing 0.2% m/m, a deceleration from 0.4% in November. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, was flat after increasing 0.2% a month prior. Inflation is a lagging variable, as…
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat expectations, jumping to 105.1 from 101.7 in November. Most index subcomponents increased, led by measure of expectations, notably for the state of the economy and real sales. After jumping 39 percentage…
Our European Investment strategists looked at the developed markets bond selloff from a European perspective, focusing on Euro area and UK government bonds and currencies. The recent selloff in European bonds is driven primarily by surging US yields,…
Despite a strong dollar, rising yields, and falling equities, oil and copper prices have recently risen. Oil has broken out above its 200-day moving average, while copper is currently testing its own. Oil’s bullish price action is explained by…
The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates on Friday, driven by a cooling of consumer expectations. Worryingly, both the 1-year and 5-to-10 year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3% from 2.8% and 3.0%,…
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
Thoughts on the increase in bond yields and this morning’s employment data.
The global economy is subject to numerous cycles displaying reflexivity and feedback loops. One of these is the relationship between financial conditions and growth. Given this relationship, economic strength can plant the seeds of its own demise.Markets are…
The US December jobs report came in stronger than expected. Payrolls rose by 256k vs. a downwardly revised 212k in November, leaving the 3-month moving average at about 170k. The unemployment and underemployment rates decreased to 4.1% (from 4.2%) and 7.5%…