Japan’s improving growth momentum and structural inflation shift support an underweight in JGBs and long JPY positioning. The June Eco Watchers Survey was broadly in line with expectations, with current conditions ticking up to 45.0…
BCA’s Private Markets & Alternatives strategists recommend a balanced allocation across Public and Private Infrastructure, with near-term valuation favoring Public. Structural differences in index construction, sector mix, and…
Markets are pricing a return to a neutral policy stance for the major central banks within the next 12 months. However, recession risks still loom amid slowing growth. We unpack where recession risks are underappreciated and what it…
Deteriorating macro momentum supports a defensive asset allocation stance as hard data deteriorates. Last week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs confirmed that growth is slowing and price pressures are easing from a high level.…
Stronger-than-expected June inflation will likely keep the Riksbank on hold in August, despite soft underlying trends. Headline inflation accelerated more than expected to 0.5% m/m (0.8% y/y), while CPI ex-housing rose to 2.9% y/y…
Our European Investment strategists upgrade small caps to maximum overweight, citing improving margins, supportive macro trends, and attractive valuations. They expect small caps to continue outperforming large caps over the next 12…
Labor market cracks reinforce long duration and steepener positioning as growth risks mount. Job market data has looked strong on the surface, but the details of the June employment and JOLTS reports confirm a slowing trend within…
Canada’s stronger currency and tightening financial conditions point to further BoC easing and support long Canadian bond positions. The CAD has appreciated this year alongside the global push to diversify away from USD assets, which…
Relative growth and inflation trends point to a narrower UST/Bund spread. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, Global Fixed Income Strategist. This week, our rates strategists introduced a new US/Euro Area Relative…
Stronger-than-expected June payrolls rule out a July Fed cut, but the report does not derail the case for long duration and curve steepeners. Nonfarm payrolls printed at 147k, with the two prior months revised up by 16k, leaving the…