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Developed Countries

Copper Remains Vulnerable
Speculators have supported copper prices as demand growth slowed below the pace of supply growth. Our Commodity and Energy Strategy colleagues believe this does not bode well for the metal. The copper market faces a situation where demand growth will be…
Daily Insights
What’s Behind Silver’s Bull Run?
Silver has shone this year, especially after it breached a multi-decade downward slopping trendline. Silver is a precious metal, but its heavy usage in industrial processes makes us wonder whether it is sending a bullish message on the global economy,…
Daily Insights
US GDP: Still Strong
Advanced Q3 GDP for the US met expectations, showing 2.8% quarterly annualized growth and a small deceleration from 3.0% in Q2. Importantly, growth remains above trend. The report was strong across the board except for housing. It also highlights that US…
Daily Insights
Euro Area: Growth Accelerates, But Beware Global Manufacturing
Flash Q3 GDP estimates for the Euro Area beat expectations, accelerating to 0.4% quarterly growth from 0.2% last quarter. The momentum was spread across major countries, except for Italy. Meanwhile, the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index for…
Daily Insights
US Consumers Are Not All The Same
As US consumers remain one of the few engines of global growth, our US Investment Strategy colleagues took a deep dive on consumer trends, augmented with comments from US banks’ earnings calls. Middle-aged consumers have fallen behind the young and old.…
Daily Insights
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Updating Our Return Forecasts

We update our 12-month return projections for different US fixed income sectors in soft-landing and recession scenarios.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Trump Has The Edge, But Harris Underrated

Trump may be favored, but Harris is now underrated. The Senate is highly likely to go Republican – Harris would be gridlocked if she pulled off a victory. If Trump wins it will be a full sweep. Expect volatility in the short term. 

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
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Germany: Sick But Not Dead

Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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The US Will Turn Hawkish On Trade, Foreign Policy, Or Both (GeoRisk Update)

The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Keeping An Eye On The Oil-Rates Correlation
For the past two weeks, oil has sold off amid a global spike in yields. Oil prices and Treasury yields tend to be positively correlated, as oil prices are a fast-moving component of inflation, driving the inflation expectations component of bond yields. …
Daily Insights

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